P(Cause|Effect)=P(Effect|Cause)*P(Cause)/P(Effect)
That is what we have in the influenza case:
What is the probability to catch influenza, if for example, we have a cough:
P(flu|cough)=P(cough|flu)*P(flu)/P(cough)
If we have some epidemic situation so P(flu) dramatically increase and P(flu|cough) also increases.
August 6th, 2010 at 20:08
Posterior=(likelihood*Prior)/evidence
September 17th, 2010 at 18:17
Excellent explanation http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes
September 20th, 2010 at 08:45
P(Cause|Effect)=P(Effect|Cause)*P(Cause)/P(Effect)
That is what we have in the influenza case:
What is the probability to catch influenza, if for example, we have a cough:
P(flu|cough)=P(cough|flu)*P(flu)/P(cough)
If we have some epidemic situation so P(flu) dramatically increase and P(flu|cough) also increases.