Comments on: Bayes’ Rule http://eng.kulanov.org.ua/archives/85 GRID Compiting, Grid in Ukraine, Workload performance, modelling and prediction Fri, 29 Jul 2011 12:32:45 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Sergey Kulanov http://eng.kulanov.org.ua/archives/85/comment-page-1#comment-9 Sergey Kulanov Mon, 20 Sep 2010 05:45:06 +0000 http://eng.kulanov.org.ua/?p=85#comment-9 P(Cause|Effect)=P(Effect|Cause)*P(Cause)/P(Effect) That is what we have in the influenza case: What is the probability to catch influenza, if for example, we have a cough: P(flu|cough)=P(cough|flu)*P(flu)/P(cough) If we have some epidemic situation so P(flu) dramatically increase and P(flu|cough) also increases. P(Cause|Effect)=P(Effect|Cause)*P(Cause)/P(Effect)
That is what we have in the influenza case:
What is the probability to catch influenza, if for example, we have a cough:

P(flu|cough)=P(cough|flu)*P(flu)/P(cough)

If we have some epidemic situation so P(flu) dramatically increase and P(flu|cough) also increases.

]]> By: Sergey Kulanov http://eng.kulanov.org.ua/archives/85/comment-page-1#comment-8 Sergey Kulanov Fri, 17 Sep 2010 15:17:58 +0000 http://eng.kulanov.org.ua/?p=85#comment-8 Excellent explanation http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes Excellent explanation http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes

]]> By: Sergey Kulanov http://eng.kulanov.org.ua/archives/85/comment-page-1#comment-6 Sergey Kulanov Fri, 06 Aug 2010 17:08:16 +0000 http://eng.kulanov.org.ua/?p=85#comment-6 Posterior=(likelihood*Prior)/evidence Posterior=(likelihood*Prior)/evidence

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